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Criterion
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumLow
Timedifferent
30-90 min20–45 min60-120 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1-6Small cross-functional group3-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption ListRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFlywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
DecisionTreeOptions
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
GrowthRetentionConversion
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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