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| Criterion |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-6 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | DecisionTreeOptions | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |