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| Criterion |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | laufend | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-6 | 2-12 | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | DecisionTreeOptions | EstimationForecastingFlow | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |