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Criterion
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Purposedifferent
A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowMedium
Timedifferent
2-6 h2-6 h45-90 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
3-83-102-82-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog
Tagsno overlap
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeSafetyIncident
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