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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 2-6 h | 45-90 min | 60-120 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |