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Criterion
Paper illustration of Cost of Delay with its method-specific working model.
Delivery
Cost of Delay
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
90-180 min45-60 min20–45 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-82-8Small cross-functional group2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
CoD Table, Prioritization SequenceAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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