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| Criterion |  Operations Change Analysis |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-120 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-6 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |