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| Criterion |  Operations Change Analysis |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-120 min | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 2-6 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |