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| Criterion |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-6 h | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |