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Criterion
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighMediumLow
Timedifferent
2-6 h1-4 Wochen45-60 min15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
3-106-30 Experten2-82-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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