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Criterion
Paper illustration for Bucket System.
Agile
Bucket System
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
30-90 min10-30 min je Item1-4 h or multiple rounds1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
3-121-84-12 Experten6-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split CandidatesThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
EstimationExpertsForecasting
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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