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| Criterion |  Agile Bucket System |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 2-8 | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |