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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Half day | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationExpertsForecasting | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |