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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 30-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-10 | 2-6 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |