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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of VUCA Scan with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
VUCA Scan
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min30-90 min45-60 min1-2 Wochen pro Iteration
Participantsdifferent
2-81-102-82-6
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanVUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
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