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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 30-90 min | 45-60 min | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-10 | 2-8 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |