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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 10-30 min je Item | Half day | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |