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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 20-35 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |