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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 20-45 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 1-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |