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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHighMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min1-5 Tage1-4 Wochen45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-8Nutzertraffic1-62-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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