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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min1-4 h2-6 h2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
2-83-83-82-6
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanProblem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action PlanFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident
RiskRoot causeSafety
Root causeSafetyIncident
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