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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 h | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionSensemaking | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |