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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 20–45 min | 20-35 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 1-5 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |