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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min20–45 min1-4 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional group3-83-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logProblem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action PlanFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
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