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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHighMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min20–45 minMehrere Tage bis Wochen2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional group2-62-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
Root causeSafetyIncident
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