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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min20–45 min15-30 min1-4 h
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional group2-63-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresProblem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident
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