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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |