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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |