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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |