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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |