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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 2-8 h | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |