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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 15-60 min | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-9 | 4-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortAgile | AgileDiscoveryDelivery |