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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min15-60 min je Zyklus20–45 minHalf day
Participantsdifferent
2-81-8Small cross-functional group3-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action UpdatesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logStress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis
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