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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Agile NoEstimates |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | laufend | Half day | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-12 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationForecastingFlow | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |