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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Red Teaming method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Red Teaming
Paper illustration of Family Tree Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Family Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments.For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighHighMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 minMehrere Tage bis Wochen1-4 h2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-63-82-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsChallenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation PlanFamily Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
RiskDecisionSensemaking
Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic
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