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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration of Family Tree Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Family Tree Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighMediumHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 minMehrere Tage bis Wochen2-4 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-62-63-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsFamily Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic MeasuresFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic
RiskRoot causeSafety
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