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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighLowMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 minMehrere Tage bis Wochen30-60 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-61-52-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsCompleted Experiment Canvas, Success MetricAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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