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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighHighHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 minMehrere Tage bis Wochen2-6 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-63-103-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
RiskRoot causeSafety
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