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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighMediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 minMehrere Tage bis Wochen45-60 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-62-82-6
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Root causeSafetyIncident
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