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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a branching impact map with a Why goal at the root, actor circles, How behavior changes and What options.
Product Strategy
Impact Mapping
Paper illustration of a branching tree with an outcome at its root, customer opportunities, solution options and small experiment cards.
Product Discovery
Opportunity Solution Tree
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures.When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
45-90 min45-90 min1-2 h Setup, laufend20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-82-6Small cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanImpact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery OptionsOpportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning LogRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning
DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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