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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min15-60 min1-2 h1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-82-92-86-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning reportExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
EstimationEffortAgile
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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