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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Agile Ideal Days |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-60 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-9 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationEffortAgile | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |