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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Hooked Model with its method-specific working model.
Growth
Hooked Model
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 minMultiple workshops over several weeks1-4 WochenHalf day
Participantsdifferent
2-82-86-30 Experten3-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanHooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics checkExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesStress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
GrowthBehaviorRetention
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis
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