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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Gemba Walk |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 30-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-6 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | LeanObservationProcessOperations | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |