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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-4 h | 20–45 min | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |