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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-4 h | 30-60 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |