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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-4 h | 30-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |