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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min60-120 min1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-8Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFlywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
GrowthRetentionConversion
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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