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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighHighLow
Timedifferent
45-90 min2-6 hMehrere Tage bis Wochen15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-82-62-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskRoot causeSafety
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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