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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-6 h | 2-6 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskRoot causeSafety | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |